Cross-border payments in 2025: 15 trends set to shape the year
2025 is set to be another year of evolution for cross-border payments. Here are some of the main trends set to impact the industry in the coming year.
2024 was a busy year for cross-border payments and 2025 is set to be at least as busy – particularly when it comes to technology and industry. Over the next year, developments will continue to shape many different aspects of the sector, while the next generation of industry catalysts will also continue to assert themselves.
In 2024, we set out 15 trends for the sector, the majority of which proved correct, divided across three categories: social trends, technological advances and industry evolution. But in 2025, we’ve adjusted these groupings slightly, removing geopolitical and social factors as a category in favour of vertical-specific trends.
This doesn’t mean we believe that such factors are no longer key – far from it. Not only are many of the developments we saw in 2024 in this area still ongoing, particularly when it comes to dedollarisation and the shift of major payment corridors, but they are set to continue for many years to come and their impacts typically form parts of broader industry or vertical-specific trends, rather than standing alone.
Instead, for our 15 cross-border payments trends this year, we want to focus on the more acute developments that are bringing meaningful changes in either interest, action or both for the industry in 2025. And here it is technology and industry where the biggest impacts are set to occur.
Cross-border payments’ 2025 technology trends
While technology has always formed a critical part of cross-border payments, several technologies dominated attention in 2024, particularly stablecoins and artificial intelligence (AI). In 2025, those same two are set to continue to draw focus, but with some critical differences in their evolution, while others will also be finding increased attention alongside them.
Stablecoins reach peak hype
Though stablecoins were largely at the fringes of cross-border payments at the start of 2024, by the end they were one of the biggest topics of focus for many in the industry, with a host of stablecoin projects in various stages of development. From B2B2X players to consumer-focused heavyweights, stablecoins are presenting revenue opportunities across the industry and in 2025 that is going to drive even further enthusiasm. Expect stablecoins to be the biggest buzzword at many industry events, particularly towards the middle of the year, with both beneficial and questionable applications among those likely to be posited. There will be genuine impacts from stablecoins this year, but there will also be an immense amount of noise.
Blockchain infrastructure becomes normalised
While stablecoins are set to see a lot of very focused discussion, a related impact will be how the industry engages with broader blockchain technology. As the rails on which stablecoins and other tokenised assets, including cryptocurrencies, move, blockchain infrastructure is vital to the use of stablecoins. However, as stablecoin discussion has mounted, think pieces about blockchain appear to have reduced, while serious players – particularly in the banking sector – have increasingly adopted the technology. 2025 is therefore set to see blockchain made use of more than ever, but increasingly see discussion shift to more technical and practical areas of focus, rather than high-minded discussions detached from everyday realities.
Generative AI shows productivity gains
Artificial intelligence was one of the most dominant topics in 2024 as the industry began to get to grips with how it could make the technology, and generative AI (GenAI) in particular, work to its advantage. While this resulted in significant hype, it also saw GenAI begin to meaningfully move from test to operational reality, with several companies sharing data points on productivity gains and cost reductions associated with the technology, particularly around customer support. In 2025 such gains will only mount, with growing numbers of companies not only set to report on its use in earnings calls and other industry announcements, but also to share specific data on how it is having an impact. Expect more tangible benefits across more industry areas, although there are also likely to be a few mis-steps along the way.
Quantum computing interest begins to build
While AI and stablecoins are both once-futuristic technologies now being used to provide tangible benefits for the industry, quantum computing will in 2025 emerge as the next technology that is firmly on the horizon. Although it attracted some small mentions in 2024, 2025 is likely to see it begin to attract greater discussion in think pieces and at industry conferences, particularly when it comes to its implications for fraud detection and money laundering prevention. Such discussion is driven by meaningful, albeit incremental, advances in the technology that are bringing it closer to operational reality. However, we are still multiple years from it beginning to impact the day-to-day of the industry, so take all discussion with a side of scepticism.
Data adoption and automation evolves
The use of data in cross-border payments has been evolving rapidly over the last few years, and has surged for many parts of the industry. For policymakers and central banks, 2024 was the first year where they had direct data on how the industry is performing against key speed, cost and transparency targets, while more and more players are making use of pricing and capabilities data to inform strategy. 2025 is set to see this step up. More players are waking up to the potential of using data to automate pricing decisions, while others are embracing platforms that bring together multiple data sources to streamline key processes. The result is that 2025 is set to see industry use of data become increasingly sophisticated – and ultimately translate into operational and revenue for gains for those embracing the possibilities.
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Key cross-border payments industry developments for 2025
Away from technology-specific developments, the cross-border payments industry is also set to see considerable industry evolution in 2025. While in 2024 the market conditions coming out of the previous year shaped a focus on consolidation and spinouts, 2025 is set to see a broader range of moves in and out of the public market. Meanwhile, policymakers are set to play a bigger role in shaping the rules of engagement for many cross-border payments players in the coming year and beyond.
Public market delistings pick up pace
In 2024, cross-border payments saw more high-profile delistings or potential delistings from the public market than it saw IPOs. In Q1 2024, Worldpay completed its spinoff from FIS to become a standalone private company, while Q2 saw Nuvei announce it was going private and Q4 saw Equals make a similar move via an acquisition by Railsr. Intermex also said it was considering a sale, while reports of similar moves at dLocal and Flywire also circulated. Such moves are only set to continue in 2025, particularly as there is a notable divide between publicly traded players who performed well last year and those who saw their market cap slide. Expect to see further smaller and mid-sized players make the move, potentially including some of those who have previously attracted speculation or reports.
Private equity takes a bigger share of the industry
At the heart of this swing away from the public markets is the interest of private equity firms, who have funded all of the moves discussed in the previous section and appear to be increasingly focused on cross-border payments as an industry with strong ongoing potential, particularly for those prepared to invest in digitisation. This interest also extends to non-public players, however, and while private equity firms already have a significant stake in the cross-border payments industry across its many forms, in 2025 we expect this to grow further as it continues to explore the potential of players of many sizes and statuses.
Cross-border payments IPOs begin to return
Despite this shift away from the public markets for some players, 2025 is also set to end the dearth of initial public offerings that we saw across 2024. Some players have already appointed banks to support IPO efforts, with Santander’s Ebury set for an IPO as early as H1 2025, while Klarna is expected to IPO in the US this year. Other long-established startups may also finally make their debuts in 2025, with Nium previously targeting the year, while Stripe, Rapyd and Airwallex have also attracted speculation that they are set to make similar moves. However, this is dependent on the financial climate: the markets will need to continue to remain strong if they are to provide the listing multiples required for such players to go public.
Policymakers drive attention on pricing
While the industry is set to see much movement in terms of ownership, it is also likely to see growing regulatory expectations from policymakers. The latest KPIs for the G20 Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-Border Payments published in Q4 2025 gave central banks their first clear view that the industry was not on track to achieve key 2027 targets, and in 2025 we are likely to see that translate into regulatory efforts to improve the situation. How this will translate into policy is set to vary immensely by region, however, and we may see the impact more on licence approvals in key markets than in other regulatory areas.
Interchange fees face growing scrutiny
2024 saw regulators in many parts of the world place increasing scrutiny on interchange fees – fees applied to card-based transactions – with the UK and Europe among those to take action in moves that will continue into the coming year. In December, the European Union reached an initial deal on capping cross-border and domestic interchange fees that is set to be voted on in 2025. Meanwhile, the UK’s Payment Systems Regulator has proposed a price cap on cross-border interchange fees that may become law this year, amid a landmark class action lawsuit in the country that is set to see merchants take on Visa and Mastercard over the issue. Such moves are set to amplify the topic globally, and are likely to result in growing scrutiny in other regions, particularly as the growth of virtual cards helps drive up card adoption globally.
Vertical-specific trends for 2025
While there are many topics that are shaping trends for many parts of the industry, there are also certain key trends that are set to be highly impactful for specific verticals in 2025. While each major vertical has a host of factors shaping it in the coming year, in this section we’ve focused on topics that are specific only to certain verticals and that are set to be key factors for those areas of cross-border payments over the next 12 months.
Netting sees growing interest for B2B
While a practice that has been common in transaction banking for many years, there have been increasing signs that non-bank players, particularly in the B2B space, are increasingly exploring the use of netting in their operations. This sees organisations aggregate settlements to reduce credit, liquidity and systemic risks, with Corpay and dLocal among those who discussed their increasing use of the practice in 2024. Crucially, this is a practice that is only workable at a certain scale, so it speaks to the increased strength in the non-bank B2B sector; in 2025 we expect this to continue, with more players actively highlighting their capabilities and practices in this area.
Banking specialisation increases
While banks still retain the vast majority of the B2B cross-border payments market, they have seen their share begin to erode in favour of non-banking players, who in 2023 held an 8% share of global B2B cross-border payments volume. Meanwhile, many major banks continue not to prioritise transaction banking-led cross-border payments at an executive level, while a handful make it a key focus.
In 2025, we expect that divide to continue to grow, with those focused on cross-border payments doubling down on the space, while others decide between increasing focus or deprioritising it in favour of other areas. This is reflected in some reorganisation plans, most notably those of Standard Chartered, which is set to offload some customers as part of a plan to grow the cross-border share of its Corporate & Investment Banking segment’s income. We expect to see other cross-border-related announcements as banks make their FY 2024 reports in the coming months.
Remittances reaches a digital tipping point
The growth of digital has been a key narrative in consumer remittances for several years, and in 2024 this was particularly key. On send volumes, Remitly closed the gap with market leader Western Union significantly, while Wise’s consumer division outpaced WU for the first time. The retail major also saw its digital revenues overtaken by both players. Meanwhile, digital growth consistently outperformed overall growth for traditionally retail-led players, including Western Union, Intermex and Euronet money transfers (Ria and Xe). Other competitors’ moves have also highlighted where the opportunities lie for the industry, with Wise’s move into India seeing it take on a traditional remittance-focused market, while Africa-based Flutterwave brought its app to the US in September.
In 2025, we expect this trend to begin to accelerate, aided by fresh insights into improved levels of digital access globally when the next iteration of the World Bank’s Global Findex Database is published. Intermex’s case for potential buyers in its Q3 earnings focused on its digital potential, suggesting the company plans to increasingly reposition in this direction, while others have also stressed this area’s importance to 2025 growth. Not only do we expect to see digital become the central framing for future remittances growth among traditionally retail-led players this year, but we may also see some key digital metrics outpace retail for the first time in 2025.
Localised ecommerce payments reach next phase of popularity
In the world of ecommerce, more people are gaining the ability to make digital payments, but their methods of paying are increasingly diverse depending on where in the world they are located. The proliferation of digital wallets in particular has seen increasing numbers of payment methods that are highly popular in a specific area, but almost unknown elsewhere, and in 2024 we saw payment processors respond to this. Adyen in particular increased the number of payment methods it supported by 24%, and in 2025 we expect to see this trend continue, with growing numbers of highly local payment types seeing increased adoption, as consumers and merchants’ expectations increase.
B2B2X sees greater interoperability
Finally, for B2B2X players – the companies that supply the networks that underpin the world’s cross-border payments infrastructure – there has been a proliferation of in-house networks sold to other players. However, many such players grew their reach significantly in 2024 through mutual partnerships with each other, with even Swift increasingly focusing on partnerships to boost its utility. In 2025, we expect this to develop further, with more partnerships being announced and more explicit interoperability baked into organisations’ B2B2X offerings. 2024 saw interoperability gain rapid adoption as a keyword for cross-border payments, but 2025 will take it to a new level of operational reality.
