How big is the B2B cross-border payments market? 2030’s $56tn TAM
FXC Intelligence data provides a true picture of the post-pandemic B2B cross-border payments market, with market sizing data up to 2030.
The size of the cross-border payments market can be challenging to fully assess, especially in the opaque B2B segments of the market. However, FXC Intelligence has developed new market sizing datasets that provide a renewed picture of the total addressable market (TAM) for cross-border payments following the pandemic.
Taking into account certain pandemic market dynamics and contractions that are often overlooked by other models, the data shows that the global B2B cross-border payments market is expected to total $56.1tn by 2030.
In this report, we outline the overall size of the market and how growth in key sectors is driving a significant upswing in B2B cross-border payments between now and the end of the decade.
The size of the B2B cross-border payments market
Built by the company from the ground up, to produce the most comprehensive B2B market sizing data available, FXC Intelligence’s data shows that the B2B cross-border payments industry is expected to have a market size of $39.3tn for 2023 and grow 43% by 2030 to reach $56.1tn.
By contrast, although the consumer cross-border payments market is significantly smaller, at $1.8tn in 2023, it is expected to see faster growth over the next seven years, increasing 80% to $3.3tn.
Meanwhile, the wholesale cross-border payments market, which covers transactions for currency trading and related activities, is set to increase 54% over the same period, from $146tn in 2023 to $225.2tn in 2030.
Together, these combine to form an overall cross-border payments market of $190.1tn in 2023, which is expected to rise 53% to $290.2tn in 2030.
The non-wholesale market, which covers consumer and business payments and is sometimes known as the retail market, is set to total $44.1tn in 2023. However, it is expected to rise 47% to $65tn in 2030.
Trends in B2B payments growth
During Covid-19, B2B cross-border payments contracted due to changing and tightening demands over the period. As a result, 2021 was a rebound year with unusually high year-on-year growth, which is not set to continue indefinitely.
Our models take account of the pandemic and show that while we are set to see continued growth throughout the 2020s, this will be at a shallower rate than was seen during 2021.
Climbing to 2030: Drivers of growth in B2B payments
While the consumer cross-border payments space is set to continue to grow exponentially, some segments within the B2B market are playing a much greater role in growing its size between now and 2030 than others.
Large enterprise goods, which covers all physical items traded cross-border between businesses, is the largest segment in 2023, with an expected market size of $13.4tn. However, this has the second-smallest growth rate between now and 2030, at 12%. SMB goods has the smallest, at 4%.
By contrast, B2B ecommerce – which in 2023 is the second biggest segment in business cross-border payments, with an expected market size of $10tn – is set to see growth of 120% to 2030, meaning by then it will be the biggest category, with a $22tn market.
This makes it the largest driver of growth over the next seven years, although others will also play a key role. Business-to-consumer payments is set to see growth of 83%, while business services is expected to also increase far more than goods, at 23% for large enterprise services and 26% for SMB services.
These shifts in the B2B cross-border payments market are indicative of significant digitisation within the business landscape. While consumer payments has already had its digital surge throughout the pandemic, B2B is characteristically lagging behind.
The rise in B2B ecommerce reflects a proliferation of marketplaces and platforms specifically targeting businesses that are now available online. Supplying everything from goods, software, services and beyond, these are enabling businesses to access the resources their businesses need via ecommerce platforms in a manner similar to how consumers engage in ecommerce. Although slower to gain momentum than their consumer equivalents, these are now gaining considerable traction and are set to become increasingly common by the end of the decade.
Away from B2B ecommerce, the difference in growth rates between goods and services across both SMB and large enterprises is also reflective of increased digitisation. While it is unlikely there will be any advances that significantly simplify moving physical goods across borders, digitisation continues to make it easier to access services online. In a digital environment, the location of the supplier is much less important, making cross-border transactions more likely. As a result, services are set to be sourced digitally in ever greater numbers by businesses, driving up the rate of growth for cross-border transactions in this area.
Accessing FXC Intelligence’s market sizing data
FXC Intelligence has developed rich, highly granular datasets on market sizing through to 2030 for both the B2B payments space and consumer payments.
Our data is already critical to leading companies in the cross-border payment space, including some of the world’s biggest banks, technology companies, payment providers and NGOs. Get in touch to find out how our market sizing data can help support your business needs and the details of the granular cuts of data available.
