How accurate were our 2024 cross-border payments predictions?
At the start of this year, we published a list of 15 predictions for trends that were set to shape the cross-border payments industry in 2024. Now that the year is almost at a close, how did our predictions match up to reality?
For the most part, our 2024 predictions were pretty accurate.
For many, we are seeing the start of a much longer-term trend, rather than a sharp uptick in this year alone. Transparency driven by the G20 Roadmap for cross-border payments, dedollarisation and the adoption of CBDCs are all areas where we have seen developments in 2024, but where the nature of the trend means movement is slow.
From private initiatives to central bank-led partnerships such as Project Nexus, interoperability has been one of the industry’s biggest trends of 2024, outshone only by generative AI, with AI dominating events and seeing real-world applications across players including some banks, as well as Remitly and Klarna.
There were also those where there were some developments, but where it is likely to be at least another year before the trend in question truly catches, including around the growth in B2B ecommerce and the cross-border SME opportunity. Similar was true for banking’s response to the B2B market from non-banks, although we have seen strong signs from some transaction banking players in this area.
A number of companies moved away from private markets this year, with Nuvei following MoneyGram and Worldpay in private equity-backed transactions, and Flywire and Intermex reportedly considering similar moves. Meanwhile, digital has become a key driver of remittances’ ongoing scale, while rising enthusiasm for faster payments has seen real-time payments become a focus of discussion across a broad range of customer types.
The one topic where we missed in our predictions this year was on the environment. While we projected a greater focus on the environmental impact of the payments industry this year, there has been little evidence for this, and with increasing AI adoption and digitisation, it is likely that at least part of the industry’s environmental footprint has grown.
However, our biggest miss is arguably the return of stablecoins to the cross-border payments conversation this year. After years in the wilderness, the industry has begun to pay serious attention to stablecoins and the wider potential use of blockchain in cross-border payments in 2024. Some banks now have internal blockchain-based systems, while numerous companies, including PayPal, Ripple and Stripe either have or are believed to be developing a stablecoin of their own.
We’ll be sharing our 2025 predictions in the new year, so stay tuned for what to expect as the next 12 months unfold.
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